Day-to-Day Killings in Mexico Drop Over a Third In the Sheinbaum Administration, As per Official Figures

The typical count of per-day homicides monthly in the country has decreased by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, according to fresh government statistics. But, public safety specialists have advised that murder data may not signal improved countrywide stability.

Notable Decline in Per-Day Averages

There was an mean of nearly 55 homicides a day in the month of November as opposed to nearly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum assumed the leadership in September of last year. This announcement was provided by the chief of the country’s national public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in murders that we have seen during these past months is remarkably notable,” Sheinbaum remarked, explaining that the previous month the smallest figure of homicides were recorded for any single November in the past 10 years.

Recent Context and Government Plan

Violent cartel internal conflicts, coupled with the government’s highly military campaigns to confront the drug gangs, have made Mexico’s murder numbers escalate in recent years. The rate reached a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the country’s national statistics office.

That meant Mexico a murder rate over 4x greater than the United States. However, killings have been on the downward trend, dropping to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Claudia Sheinbaum has linked her national security approach for an apparently steeper reduction in killings in the current year.

At a press conference in August, the President stated: “We have a strategy, there is tracking of the strategy, and we have specific tracking municipality by municipality in certain cases. The approach is effective. And we have to persist at it daily.”

The key elements of the President's safety plan encompass:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Advancing intelligence and investigative capabilities.
• Increased collaboration between various authorities.

Expert Warnings and Data Limitations

However, security researchers urged caution that using homicide data to paint a picture of peace was problematic. This is particularly true in light of the uptick in other crimes such as forced disappearances.

“It would be positive news if this was a decrease, but I think we must not just look at the murder data and conclude: ‘Well then, great,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican organised crime. “I would be guardedly hopeful.”

Per the public policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, killings in total declined by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year versus the identical timeframe the previous year. Yet, disappearances have increased by 15% and in certain states have risen by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on homicides is not reliable for estimating the situation of insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and prosecutors who do not have the resources or the will to accurately identify and categorize remains. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the ability to mask violence through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on monthly averages of daily killings was additionally concerning because it might mask days when there were particularly high levels of killings.

“Relying on the daily mean renders high peaks of violent crime invisible,” he said.

Detentions and Confiscations as Metrics of Success

An area where the government can point to the success of its security strategy is on detentions and confiscations. Almost 40,000 suspects were detained between October 2024 and this past November for serious offenses, according to official figures. More than 20,000 guns were taken and 311 tons of narcotics intercepted.

“Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because in reality she is doing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of organised crime. It’s extremely in political terms advantageous,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Public Frustration

But notwithstanding these efforts, Mexico continues to be beset by high bloodshed, with a number of states in the throes of cartel-fueled conflict. Recently there was a prominent assassination of a popular mayor in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders murdered in the last year.

A short time after, many thousands of young people took to the streets in the capital and across the nation to show their frustration at corruption and cartel violence.

“The government frames [data] in a manner to construct a story of security. From a political standpoint it’s extremely effective, from a social perspective it’s extremely questionable,” the analyst said.